Ready the rice wine: Global warming has Japanese anticipating early cherry blossoms
TOKYO: When the cherry trees come alive in their explosion of pink blossoms, millions of Japanese will hit the parks and riversides for one of this country's biggest annual outpourings of merrymaking. They will sing and eat and drink themselves silly.

So, Japanese are impatiently asking, when will it all start?

Very soon, officials say. And the nation can thank global warming for what is expected to be one of its earliest cherry seasons ever, they say.

According to predictions released by Japan's Meteorological Agency, the trees are expected to bloom as early as this weekend in Japan's capital area, where about a quarter of all Japanese live.

That would be 10 days earlier than average and the second earliest since the agency started compiling data in 1953. The earliest on record for Tokyo is March 16, 2002.

"Cherry blossoms bloom earlier in relation to a rise in temperature, and this temperature increase is related to global warming. So there is an indirect connection," Hiroko Morooka, a Meteorological Agency official, said Tuesday.

With countless parties to be planned, including a bash hosted by the prime minister himself, predicting when the brief cherry blossom season will happen is a major ritual in Japan.

Newspapers and television networks track their march — called the "sakura zensen" or cherry blossom front line — from the hotter southwest of the country all the way through chilly Hokkaido.

When the blossoms arrive, offices clear out, friends gather, families picnic.

Because of unusually warm weather in recent months, this year's blossoms have been watched particularly closely. Park officials, who have to be ready for the crowds, have been wringing their hands.

"It's difficult to predict this year since it's been warm all winter," said Toshiharu Kobayashi, an official at the Tokyo Metropolitan Park Association. "Usually, the temperature drops and then hikes up for the cherry blossoms to bloom, but this year, it's been warm all along."

The biggest draw by far is Ueno Park, where 2.3 million are expected to partake in the blossom season.

Even in the best of years, cherry blossoms are notoriously short-lived. Temperature changes and even a day of rain can considerably cut their longevity, which is usually only about a week or so.

To hedge his bets, the annual cherry blossom party hosted by the prime minister is held at a Tokyo park with a different, hardier variety of cherry that blooms later and lasts longer. That party, attended by celebrities, business leaders and the political elite, is scheduled for April 14.

About 10,000 guests have been invited.

The early blooms underscore a significant change in Tokyo's climate.

The average temperature during winter months in Tokyo from 1971 and 2000 was 6.7 degrees Celsius (44 Fahrenheit), according to the Meteorological Agency. From December 2006 to February 2007, the average temperature was nearly 2 degrees Celsius higher, at 8.6 degrees Celsius (47.5 Fahrenheit).

Nationwide, Japan saw the warmest winter from December 2006 to February 2007 since the agency started compiling data in 1899. It was 1.52 degrees Celsius higher than average and tied with the winter in 1948-49.

Along with confusion over when to expect the cherry blossoms, Tokyo residents have noticed the change in some personal ways.

"Global warming has become more of a personal reality for me," said Tomoko Yokoyama, a 37-year-old housewife. "It seems like everything is happening earlier. I haven't seen any snow, and the hay-fever situation is worse for my daughter."